A divided government

The U.S. is almost certainly promised a divided government again, we had a short term of divided government for two years from '06-'08. Divided government is not bad in fact this may be exactly what it takes to recalibrate the country. A divided government will make both sides work together even if hardcore partisans on both sides hate it it is good for the country. When you have divided government you have pragmatism come through you can't be a hardcore ideologue because then you will simply be pushed aside for members in the House or Senate that want to work and do the business of the people.

What's the Tea Parties Problem?

The Tea Party has now set its sights on Congressman Mike Castle of Delaware as their next republican in their sights. Do they not understand that Castle is a shoo-in he was a popular two-term Governor and has easily been elected and re-elected to the House ever since in an at-large seat. Mike Castle is a good long serving republican and he is a Yankee republican so what. He is the type of republican that can make the party competitive again in the Northeast which they are now not. If the Tea Party knocks off Rep. Castle then the democrats will keep the Senate seat once held by Vice President Biden if republicans want to take control of the U.S. Senate Castle has to be the nominee.

The Tea Party Versus Republicans

This last week in several primaries the Tea Party candidate has beaten the establishment. In Alaska Sara Palin has continued her battle against the Murkowski family. This time targeting Sen.Murkowski the daughter of former U.S. Senator and Governor Frank Murkowski. Joe Miller a little known Judge and attorney was backed by Sara Palin and the Tea Party is currently ahead of Murkowski with more than 16000 ballots left to be counted. In Florida a mega millionaire was able to knock off the sitting Attorney General in the Republican primary Bill McCollum has yet to endorse Rick Scott. But Rep.Kendrick Meeks easily handled his primary billionaire challenger by more than 10% points. In Arizona John McCain pounded former congressman J.D. Hayworth and Tea party favorite by 20% points however McCain spent 21 million dollars defeating Hayworth McCain will easily win in November however the Tea Party is costing Republicans lots of money in primaries they will need to become the majority in the fall. Primaries are a good thing but they quite often valuable resources from incumbents that need them especially in this economy money will be tight and the Tea Party has made Republicans primaries very expensive once again the Tea Party is not helping the Republican party and is not making it better.

Nelson will oppose Kagan

Democratic Senator Ben Nelson has said he will oppose Supreme Court Nominee Elena Kagan. Since Kagan has five Republicans and presumably the rest of the Democrats voting for her she will be easily confirmed so losing Nelson doesn't mean much. so lets look at why Nelson will vote against her. Can anyone say looking towards 2012 even though Governor Heineman is leaning against running for Senate in 2012. So who is going to challenge Nelson Attorney General Bruning he wants to be governor but he could beat Nelson turn around run for Governor and appoint his own successor. This is doubtful to happen I think if Governor Heineman turns down the Senate bid then you can look for Congressman Fortenberry to probably jump into the Senate race. If Heineman is out, Bruning is the Republican candidate with the best chance of beating Nelson but its no secret that Bruning wants to be Governor and if he beats Nelson the question would be will he even serve a whole term in the Senate if elected. If Bruning and Heineman both choose to pass on the Senate race the Republicans could be in real trouble to knock off Nelson. The rest of the republican state wide office holders don't pose much of a threat to Nelson. The three Congressmen from Nebraska would be hard pressed to raise enough money and none of them have ever ran a statewide race. So Nelson voting against Kagan has big implications for 2012 but Senator Nelson knows this.

Tea Party agenda

We as citizens keep seeing the Tea party rallies and Sarah Palin speaking at them and all of the new one liners that seems to come out of the rallies. We know that the Tea party is against out of controlled spending congratulations so is a vast majority of Americans. The tea party wants its elected leaders to be more accountable and responsive to its fellow citizens what an amazing new idea. The Tea party wants a balanced budget again the Tea party is just full of brand new ideas.

The point is that the Tea party favors ideas we all support but outside of those few ideas that are as old as the republic itself the Tea party really does not stand for anything. We know that the Tea party is against just about everything except those previously mentioned ideas. The Tea party offers nothing new and they get out of responsibility for the rally actions saying they are not a centrally organized group and cannot be held accountable for the actions of some of their members. However they were the first to crow about the defeat of U.S. Senator Bob Bennett R-Utah in the primary that it was the tea party that defeated Bennett interesting for a group that has no central organization.

The Steele Republican Problem

RNC Chairman Michael Steele is a gift for the democrats in a year the republican party should gain one house if not maybe an outside chance of gaining both houses. However Michael Steele just keeps opening his mouth and with his comments about Afghanistan he keeps making mistakes that a person in his position should not make. An individual in a leadership position such as an RNC chairman should be intelligent enough to know that everything he says is going to be scrutinized especially with previous gaffe's he has made. The RNC cannot toss out the chairman but they need to make sure at the very least that he is on the same page as the minority leaders and the republican leadership in both houses.

Kagan hearings begin

As the confirmation hearings for Elena Kagan began in the Senate with Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions drilling Kagan on the restrictions she placed on the military as her time as Harvard Law School Dean. After Sessions South Carolina Republicans Lindsey Graham made it clear that Kagans liberal up bringing and activism during her life does not disqualify her for the Supreme Court. Its interesting to see the tact that Republican Senators are taking with Kagan they are not wholeheartedly attacking even Texas Senator John Cornyn said that her history with the military needed more inquiry in the hearings but thats about it. Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein had issue with Kagan saying that a ruling that is only a day old is settled law. Kagan will be grilled continuously about her military position but other than that its hard to see any other real bumps in the road Kagan will be easily confirmed.

Barton is an Idiot

Texas Rep. Joe Barton is an idiot and if the democrats use his comments and they will it could cost the GOP major momentum. Being a Texas house member Rep. Barton is going to be more friendly to big oil but apologizing to BP's CEO is insanely out of step. Barton should be replaced as ranking member of the energy committee and should be made to help clean up the mess in the gulf. Comments like this is exactly the out of touch feeling that voters are feeling from their representatives. The GOP does not need the this kind of distraction at the moment looking even more friendly towards business than the republicans generally do. With the gulf crisis and voters attitudes towards corporations this is not something that any republican running this cycle needs to be tied to Joe Barton.

The mood

Many feel that the public is in a bad mood and they would more than likely to be right. With voters tossing out two incumbent Senators and a party switching Congressman in Northern Alabama the mood amongst any voters is not sympathetic. What does this mean exactly for all incumbents generally if you keep the race local your in good shape as several congressional special elections have shown. however before people believe we are going to have a whole new Congress lets understand the numbers. In 2006 when democrats capitalized on the voters being angry at George W. Bush and took control of both houses of Congress with large majorities in those houses. Only 14% of incumbents lost in 2006, yes thats right the giant democratic wave of 2006 gave 86% of the incumbents their seats back. So just because the mood in the country is currently against incumbents, the truth is that the vast majority will be re-elected.

The land scape

This past weeks primary results from across the country have been interesting to watch. Take the special election to replace the late John Murtha in Pennsylvnia's CD-12. This seat is an old Rust Belt seat an area of Pennsylvania that is very blue collar and a district in which the voters in it like their Pork projects. But the real story was that the Republicans ran a national campaign and the democrat ran a local campaign, remember all politics is local. The Democrats won the seat going away by double digits, when the Republicans should have cleaned the democrats clock. NRCC chairman Rep. Pete Sessions has already taken full responsibility for the loss. Republicans will pick off many democrats in the 2010 mid-term elections thats just the current environment. The Republicans cannot run on being republican because the republican brand is still damaged and not all that popular. The Republican party needs to make sure they run local campaigns especially in the house if you have a candidate for the house that matches the people of the district you have a great chance to win the seat. I still believe that the house may flip or have a razor thin democrat majority, the Senate I don't see the math for republicans to take back the Senate this election cycle.

The Primary

Well, we missed the State Treasurers race won by Don Stenberg and he will go on to face Mark Stoj which he will roll. The most interesting results came from the legislative races, in District 40 which is Cap Dierks seat. Dierks is looking for a third term but he came in second in the voting to Tyson Larson which means Cap Dierks has an uphill race on his hands. Dierks won Holt County which is his home base but Larson won Pierce County his home. If all other parts of district 40 break even Dierks will be replaced by Larson. Larson did not win by a large margin he only won by 236 votes if Larson receives the majority of the votes that went to Adam Dea who received 259 votes and finds some other votes throughout the district he will unseat Cap Dierks. This race will be very interesting to watch how it plays out and the themes that develop within it.

Sour Grapes

It seems as if Governor Dave Heineman's primary challenger Christopher Geary has issues with Nebraska Right to Life. They recently endorsed the Governor over Mr.Geary which it does not seem sets well with Mr.Geary and because Nebraska Right to Life did not endorse Mr.Geary they are now apparently not Pro-life enough for Mr.Geary interesting I wonder if Mr.Geary would have turned down the endorsement completely anyway since Nebraska Right to Life is not sufficiently Pro-life enough for Mr.Geary. Let me explain it to Mr.Geary, Dave Heineman is going to win he is an excellent Governor and understands how all of Nebraska works. Mr.Geary only until recently was absolutely opposed to ethanol production and the use of it, yeah that sounds like a candidate that understands the fact that the Agriculture industry is #1 in this state. Mr.Geary needs to go back to his dojo and play with his belts leave campaigning and running for office to the Grown ups after next Tuesday it will be Heineman wins with at least 75%.

Almost Primary Time

The primary is May 11th a week from today, and the only interesting race really is the Treasurer's race. With 29 State Senators backing Tony Fulton I think has the inside edge even though the Governor is staying out of it the members of the unicameral are not. Even then the voters may dissolve the Treasurers office but thats not likely to happen I don't believe. Lee Terry will probably walk to renomination over the party water carrier Matt Sakalosky. The District 4 race for Public Service Commission is a fight between republican candidates but look for incumbent Rod Johnson to be re-elected again to another 6 year term. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is fending off two other republicans and four democrats are running to replace him. It won't happen Fortenberry will return to Congress for a fourth term.

Matt Sakalosky

I know this is Omaha's district but this is just more proof that the Tea party is going to extreme. Businessman and Lee Terry Primary opponent Matt Sakalosky was at a Tea party rally, Terry was not. The question is what exactly are Mr.Sakalosky's issues besides Lee Terry's vote on the bailout. Mr.Sakalosky complains about Lee Terry's vote but what solutions does Mr.Sakalosky have. I have not heard them I know what he is against what he is mad about but I don't know what he supports and what he's for. It's easy to be a candidate that is angry, but angry candidates don't win often especially against an incumbent in their own primary. This is more Tea party anger but I think its still misconstrued and misplaced. So these activists disagree with one vote of Lee Terry's how is that cause to fire him. Why do we have to agree with our representatives 100% of the time. The Tea party seems to want 100% conformity from our leaders but they want complete conformity to their ideals this is completely impractical. Again the Tea party is a fried to no-one and doesn't know what its for.

The Tea Party is no friend of the GOP

For, some reason the GOP seems to believe that the Tea party is an ally. This is false while many tea party members are more likely to agree with the GOP they are not good for the party overall. The Tea party is running candidates either as a third party candidate on the Tea party ticket, or they are running in republican primaries. The Tea party is trying to hijack the GOP just like the neo-cons did earlier this century. I find it a lack of leadership in the GOP for the reason that any little movement or group that even has a tinge of conservatism automatically has the whole GOP kowtows to these small groups instead of assimilating certain members of these groups into the larger GOP base and tent. The Tea party has yet to define what it stands for we all know what they are against but what are they for. The GOP should proceed with caution when it comes to the Tea party otherwise we will be painted into a corner and lose a golden opportunity to take control of at least the House of Representatives. As we are courting the Tea Party independents that were flocking to us are starting to flock back to the democrats in recent polls. The Tea party is a movement and not a friend to the GOP.

Don't trust the Tea Party

Republicans will have gains in 2010 how has yet to determined. Watching the polls and the momentum it looks like Republicans could gain as many as 7 0r 8 I think it will probably be 5. The Tea party could spoil things for GOP gains such as in Nevada. Harry Reid is up for election and but the Tea party qualified for the ballot if Reid brakes 40% and the Tea party candidate has been polling at 10% Reid goes back to Washington. Reid needs to be retired the Tea party could spoil it. The Tea party may be well intentioned but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I agree with much of what the Tea party stands for but their inability to control the more extreme elements of their rallies is disheartening. No you can't blame the whole of the Tea party for the actions of a few. But you can hold them accountable for for not forcing these extreme elements out.

Health Care and 2010

Well, healthcare passed no tort reform was in the legislation and there is also a mandate. How this will affect the mid-term elections remains unknown. American voters have very short memories and if the economy starts to pickup and jobs numbers improve the healthcare damage could be minimal. However the anti-incumbency is in full throat most famously against Senator John McCain. Former Congressman JD Hayworth who is a tea/ social conservative and anti-immigration candidate. Sarah Palin was flown in to help out her former running mate even though she is more in line with Hayworth with her Tea party ties. Also in Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio had their first primary debate. Shots were traded Crist was very aggressive in the debate and went after Rubio. This could hurt these candidates in the general election for the money needing to be spent in the primary.

Elections are coming

There are some very interesting races going on, the races in Nebraska are probably not going to receive any national attention for one reason. None of the races are going to be much of a contest besides State Treasurer and that will probably be over after the Republican primary. State Senator Tony Fulton is the front runner in that race. There could be a ballot initiative to eventually merge the State Auditor and State Treasurers office's but it won't probably make it out of the Unicameral. This is going to be a clean sweep for Republicans this year in Nebraska.

Filing Deadline

The filing deadline has come and past for Nebraska. There were some interesting developments on the democratic side. Kris Pierce has dropped out of the Sec. of State race and is appealing to a group of 4. He wants to fill the vacant seat on the Omaha City Council, a seat which the other city council members get to pick. The democrats have found a candidate for Governor Mark Lakers an Omaha businessman executive. The democrats have several candidates for the CD1 but it won't matter much Congressman Fortenberry will easily dispose of any of the challengers. AG Jon Bruning and Auditor Mike Foley are running un-opposed the democrats pass on the race. None of the democrats are serious major challengers even Tom White appears to be losing steam and all momentum from President Obama is gone.

Sen. Giese potentially leaving

Sen. Bob Giese has decided to run for his fathers seat as Dakota County Treasurer. A seat his father has held for 32 years. Sen. Giese has been a City Councilman and Mayor of South Sioux City and is currently a State Senator. He is a proven winner and he is a democrat, however if the Senator wins this county seat the Governor will appoint his replacement. The Governor will find the best Republican to hold this seat. The democratic party cannot be happy about this since they are trying to gain seats in the Unicameral. Bob Giese was seen as a rising star for the democratic party. The state democratic party is extremely dysfunctional right now they need to win something on the statewide or Congressional level. Yes they have the Mayoral seats of the two largest cities in the state. They also have a majority on the Omaha city council. But when it comes to statewide candidates they are woefully shorthanded. Even for county candidates outside of southeast Nebraska the democrats are few and far between. Sen. Tom White running against Lee Terry for CD2 his seat is open this year in the Unicameral. This just does not seem to be a smart political strategy as a whole on the party. But that is assuming that the democrats act like a political party.

Bayh is out

U.S. Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana has decided to retire. The latest polls show Bayh up 20+ over any republican in the field and has $13 million in his war chest. Which is enough to scare off the most ambitious challenger. This is a golden opportunity for republicans to pick up a rust belt seat. Republicans have a great chance to reassert themselves this year in Senate races. Mike Castle is a probable pickup in New Hampshire. Mark Kirk has a great chance of winning President Obama old Senate seat in Illinois. Mike Hoeven is the clear front runner in North Dakota. With Bayh retiring Indiana is a prime pickup target. Winning four Senate races outside of Dixie especially potentially two in the rust belt with Illinois and Indiana could give Republicans a big tent look again instead of a regional angry party. This is only good for the party Northern conservatives are different than dixie republicans. They will give the party more Edmund Burke and William F. Buckley than Pat Robertson which is good for independents.

NE-2

This is an interesting race with Tom White and Lee Terry fighting to represent the Omaha district. Now some interesting things have happened when it comes to Tom Whites online activity. It seems that everything online for TomWhite2010.com is being paid for by his legislative campaign committee. This is interesting because Tom Whites campaign handler for his legislative seat was Ian Russell. Russell then went on to work for Tom White in the legislature a currently still does. Russell now owns the company who updates and maintains Tom Whites congressional campaign website. This seems to violate several laws of the Nebraska Accountability and Disclosure Commission. Tom White is trying to save money on the campaign and being the challenger it is understandable. However White has to spend money from his congressional treasury not his legislative account for a run for Congress. It looks like Ian Russell is once again play fast and loose with the rules and campaigns for democrats. Lets remember Russell was the head of the Nebraska Democratic Legislative campaign committee that year the democrats lost seats overall. The best backlash against the Russell-White faction will be a Lee Terry victory then Tom White and Ian Russell will both be out of a job.

The Treasurer's Race

This ear the Treasurers race could have special meaning to it. There is a bill in the Unicameral right now sponsored by Sen. Dennis Utter that would eliminate the office of State Treasurer now this bill will probably fail. If it passes whoever is elected Treasurer will be the last. as it will take effect for the 2012 election cycle.

now Sen. Utter feels that since we have an Auditor we don't need a Treasurer this could not be farther from the truth. Sen. Utter says it will save money. I don't believe so the people who work in the current treasurers office will just be moved to the Auditor's office. The Treasurer is the check writer for the state that is a giant responsibility. The office of Auditor is huge also and has a lot of responsibilities including making sure the states money is being spent the right way. Are the offices similar yes however they are not the same. Doubling the duties of the state auditor does not make the government more efficient it makes it less. This is about making sure the states checkbook is thoroughly watched. The Treasurer writes the checks and manages the state budget. The Auditor monitors where the money is going and how efficiently the states money is being used both are tremendous jobs. No one person should hold responsibility for both. The potential for impropriety is too great, especially when one person controls both ends of the checkbook. No, Sen. Utter's bill should be defeated, for the good of the state.

I for one would like to see more statewide offices like Commissioner of AG or `State Insurance Commissioner they would provide more transparency in government which is a good thing.

Retirements continue

With democrats retiring from Congress, Senate, and State Houses 2010 is looking like democrats are running scared. Many times even in a tidal wave election most governors can survive. Generally governors can distance themselves from the national party and focus on state issues to help them. With Colorado governor Bill Ritter retiring it looks like democrats are truly scared about 2010. However with Ritter out and popular Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper in the race the democrats chances have increased.

In Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley is in a dead-heat with state senator Scott Brown (R). Does brown have a real chance of winning the seat of the the "Liberal Lion" maybe. Republicans already feel that they have won, since they are forcing democrats to spend money in what should be a safe seat.

2010 Retirements so far

Yes, the house has had a couple retirements, but the U.S. Senate is going to have two fewer 3-term democrats in the Senate chamber. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Chris Dodd of Connecticut have announced their retirements. How does this look for 2010 and what does this mean for those two races. In North Dakota Governor John Hoeven is being wooed by the NRSC to run. If that happens Hoeven is a lock to make the seat Republican in November. In Connecticut the retirement of Chris Dodd may actually be a good thing for the democratic party. Richard Blumenthal is the sitting AG and is eyeing Dodds seat. If Blumenthal jumps in it will be tough for the Republicans to pick this seat up. Whoever wins the Republican primary will have an uphill climb. There will be no anti-incumbent fervor in the race for the republican party to pounce on. With these retirements the republicans will have one pickup for the 2010 cycle there will be others but its to early to call those.

Its official

It is now 2010, which means that it is an election year. No U.S. Senate race but all other statewide offices are up. Only the State Treasurer's race is an open seat, with the retiring of Shane Osborn. It will be an interesting year in only a couple races. Rep. Lee Terry is the only incumbent that will have to really work to keep his seat. Terry will win his seat with 55% the dems will fall short again. Sen. Tom White will beat out of the Unicameral and lose to Lee Terry and the State Republican party will work to pickup his seat in the Unicameral.